Validation of the Navy's COAMPS-TC Tropical Cyclone Prediction System and a Summary of Recent Improvements
The evolving threat landscape of tropical cyclones (TCs) demands increasingly precise forecasting capabilities, with economic and societal impacts driving an urgent need for improved track and intensity predictions at extended lead times. For the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, accurate TC forecasting is a mission-critical capability that directly impacts maritime operations, force protection, and strategic asset deployment across the global battlespace. Over the past decade, the Naval Research Laboratory has developed COAMPS-TC, a high-resolution, limited-area prediction system specifically engineered for TC forecasting that enhances the Navy's operational advantage in contested environments. Through systematic evaluation and refinement, we have identified and addressed critical model deficiencies affecting forecast accuracy, directly supporting the Navy's requirement for environmental battlespace awareness. This presentation will examine the components and processes contributing to systematic TC forecast errors, our diagnostic methodologies, and the implemented solutions that have enhanced predictive capabilities essential to naval operations.
IMPACT
Successfully led the multi-year advancement of COAMPS-TC forecasting capabilities through innovative physics implementations and model refinements; Result: Achieved significant improvements in tropical cyclone prediction accuracy (17% better track, 10% better intensity, 27% better wind radii forecasts) – Enhanced Navy's operational decision-making timeframe during extreme weather events and strengthened force protection capabilities across maritime domains.
PRESENTER
Doyle, James
james.doyle.civ@us.navy.mil
831-656-4716
U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
CO-AUTHOR(S)
Moskaitis, Jon
jonathan.r.moskaitis.civ@us.navy.mil
CATEGORY
Weather &  Ocean Modeling & Sim
SYSTEM(S) USED
Narwhal, Nautilus, Blueback